Re: Yay, I got 5 hits of New Year’s greeting cards, of course the 3rd Prize, though…. (やった~、お年玉年賀が5枚当たったど…3等賞やけど…)

[In English]
It’s continuing snowing in my hometown all day long today. (The depth has perhaps become more than 50 cm, now…) By taking advantage of the bad weather, I checked if New Year’s cards (with a lottery) I received hit the prize….and found that 5 hit! Luckey (^^♪
Since the winning probability of the 3rd prize (A set of postal stamps) is 3 %, the expected value of my case should be 3.2, as the number I received was 108. (108 * 0.03 =3.2) So, “5 hits” means more than 50% larger than expected!!
[Reference]
The probability of the 1st Prize (300,000 JPY) = 1 ppm (1/1,000,000)
The probability of the 2nd Prize (Regional Gifts) = 100 ppm (1/10,000)
During I was checking, I looked carefully again at handwriting messages of the senders. Some said that they are still working, some said that they are enjoying their hobbies, some said their most favorite time is playing with their grandchildren, some said their resolution this year is Health First, and some said that “Let me send the last card, as my physical and mental condition has become weak”.
People’s way of thinking varies.

[In Japanese 日本語]

タイトル: やった~、お年玉年賀が5枚当たったど…3等賞やけど…

私が住む田舎(滋賀県湖北)では今日は一日中雪が降り続いています。 (降雪量はもう50cm以上になったかも…) このような悪天候だったので、私はこのお正月に頂いたお年玉付き年賀状)が当たったかどうかを確認してみることにしました… その結果、なんと5枚も当たりました! ラッキー(^^♪
3 等賞の賞品 (郵便切手セット) の当選確率は 3 % なので、私の場合の期待値は 3.2 枚という計算になります。何故かというと、私が受け取った年賀状数は 108 枚、したがって、 108 * 0.03 = 3.2になります。この5 枚の当選は期待値より、50%以上も多いということになります。
[ご参考]
1等賞(30万円)の当選確率=1ppm(1/100万)
2等賞(ふるさと小包)の当選確率=100ppm(1/10,000)

当選を確認する際に、差出人の手書きのメッセージをあらためて注意深くながめました。 まだ仕事をしているという人、趣味を楽しんでいるという人、孫と遊ぶのが一番好きな時間だという人、今年の抱負は「健康第一」という人、そして「心身が衰えてきたので、年賀状の交換は今年で最後とさせてください」という人もいらっしゃいました。

人の考え方は様々だと思いました。

5 Cards that hit the 3rd Prize 3等賞に当選した年賀状
(There are three sets of “00”, “69” and “71”) 

当選番号: “00”, “69” ,”71″ の3種類

New Year’s Cards I received 私が受け取った年賀状

Heavily Accumulated Snow at Our Backyard 裏庭に積もった雪

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